US corn yield and production forecast 2017


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Continuing with my crop monitoring and forecast, I will post here weekly predictions of the 2017 US corn crop. The total US corn production at the end of the season is estimated at 15,310,469 (x 1,000) bushels, or 333,339 (x 1,000) metric tons. This is a 1.6% increment with respect to last week’s estimation. As a reference, total US corn production in the period 2013-2016 equaled 13,828,964, 14,215,532, 13,601,964, 15,148,038 (x 1,000) bushels, or 301,084, 309,500, 296,142, 329,803, (x 1,000) metric tons, respectively.

The map above depicts the expected yields at the state level, in bushels per acre. By placing the pointer over a given state it is possible to get the numeric values of the expected yield with its prediction interval, and the anomaly in percentage over the last 5-years average. It is possible to switch the representation between yield and anomaly. The complete data shown on the map can also be found in the table below:

Winter wheat yield forecast (July 23rd, 2017)
yield PI (2.5%) PI (97.5%) 5-y average 5-y anomaly
Alabama 166 148 185
Arkansas 189 170 207
Colorado 140 122 157 138 +1.5%
Connecticut 211 45 482
Delaware 187 170 205
Georgia 177 159 195
Idaho 201 184 219
Illinois 188 171 206 171 +10.0%
Indiana 167 150 186 157 +6.2%
Iowa 191 173 209 175 +9.0%
Kansas 143 126 162 132 +8.7%
Kentucky 161 143 178 145 +10.4%
Louisiana 181 163 200
Maine 200 40 491
Maryland 166 148 184
Massachusetts 211 48 482
Michigan 165 147 182 153 +7.3%
Minnesota 187 169 205 172 +8.6%
Mississippi 184 165 204
Missouri 154 136 171 140 +9.7%
Montana 103 85 121
Nebraska 173 155 191 171 +1.5%
New Hampshire 215 54 496
New Jersey 151 133 169
New Mexico 149 131 167
New York 143 125 160
North Carolina 138 121 156 127 +9.0%
North Dakota 122 104 139 128 -4.9%
Ohio 167 149 185 156 +6.8%
Oklahoma 132 115 150
Oregon 221 201 239
Pennsylvania 149 132 166 141 +5.5%
Rhode Island 202 44 485
South Carolina 134 113 155
South Dakota 133 116 150 141 -5.7%
Tennessee 166 148 184 144 +15.4%
Texas 150 133 167 135 +11.0%
Utah 184 165 202
Vermont 196 34 486
Virginia 144 126 163
Washington 243 226 262
West Virginia 148 130 165
Wisconsin 165 147 183 153 +8.2%
Wyoming 153 135 170

The expected yield informs about the development of the crop, especially if it is compared with the average of the previous years, but the yield alone does not inform about the expected winter wheat production. The final production is the result of the yield and the acreage (the area planted), which varies from year to year. By combining the expected yield with the estimated crop acreage, it is possible to estimate the production. A production map can be found below:


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Production forecasts by state can be found below:

Winter wheat yield forecast (July 23rd, 2017)
production PI (2.5%) PI (97.5%) 5-y average 5-y anomaly
Alabama 41,475 36,985 46,165
Arkansas 128,457 115,669 140,963
Colorado 195,849 171,072 219,994 141,072 +38.8%
Connecticut 5,269 1,119 12,046
Delaware 35,593 32,350 38,946
Georgia 65,464 58,739 72,128
Idaho 64,363 58,782 70,094
Illinois 2,126,002 1,927,236 2,331,126 2,000,960 +6.2%
Indiana 935,692 842,198 1,041,547 896,390 +4.4%
Iowa 2,572,233 2,340,002 2,819,362 2,326,120 +10.6%
Kansas 760,531 669,518 856,243 544,850 +39.6%
Kentucky 216,758 193,561 240,838 204,200 +6.1%
Louisiana 90,447 81,454 100,163
Maine 6,206 1,251 15,222
Maryland 84,573 75,550 93,771
Massachusetts 3,369 771 7,714
Michigan 411,674 367,335 454,276 334,248 +23.2%
Minnesota 1,495,621 1,354,663 1,638,116 1,363,862 +9.7%
Mississippi 103,236 92,649 114,052
Missouri 500,701 441,663 555,917 463,848 +7.9%
Montana 12,378 10,174 14,574
Nebraska 1,696,505 1,523,899 1,869,808 1,580,170 +7.4%
New Hampshire 3,232 811 7,446
New Jersey 11,461 10,138 12,846
New Mexico 20,861 18,376 23,350
New York 160,191 140,142 179,721
North Carolina 131,109 115,157 148,146 104,954 +24.9%
North Dakota 451,843 383,114 514,736 395,236 +14.3%
Ohio 593,052 528,665 657,896 544,244 +9.0%
Oklahoma 48,994 42,601 55,422
Oregon 21,000 19,136 22,692
Pennsylvania 208,773 184,456 232,618 141,898 +47.1%
Rhode Island 404 88 971
South Carolina 45,508 38,513 52,561
South Dakota 718,919 626,260 812,695 750,236 -4.2%
Tennessee 139,632 124,189 154,519 118,242 +18.1%
Texas 367,160 325,693 407,939 269,894 +36.0%
Utah 15,621 14,048 17,162
Vermont 17,634 3,062 43,754
Virginia 69,053 60,391 78,077
Washington 43,784 40,611 47,136
West Virginia 6,789 5,980 7,612
Wisconsin 668,558 596,942 740,926 477,134 +40.1%
Wyoming 14,493 12,822 16,191

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