Santiago Beguería

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Continuing with my crop monitoring and forecast, I will post here weekly predictions of the 2017 US corn crop. The total US corn production at the end of the season is estimated at 15,310,469 (x 1,000) bushels, or 333,339 (x 1,000) metric tons. This is a 1.6% increment with respect to last week’s estimation. As a reference, total US corn production in the period 2013–2016 equaled 13,828,964, 14,215,532, 13,601,964, 15,148,038 (x 1,000) bushels, or 301,084, 309,500, 296,142, 329,803, (x 1,000) metric tons, respectively.

The map above depicts the expected yields at the state level, in bushels per acre. By placing the pointer over a given state it is possible to get the numeric values of the expected yield with its prediction interval, and the anomaly in percentage over the last 5‑years average. It is possible to switch the representation between yield and anomaly. The complete data shown on the map can also be found in the table below:

The expected yield informs about the development of the crop, especially if it is compared with the average of the previous years, but the yield alone does not inform about the expected winter wheat production. The final production is the result of the yield and the acreage (the area planted), which varies from year to year. By combining the expected yield with the estimated crop acreage, it is possible to estimate the production. A production map can be found below:

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Production forecasts by state can be found below: