US corn yield and production forecast 2017


(full size)

Continuing with my crop monitoring and forecast, I will post here weekly predictions of the 2017 US corn crop. The total US corn production at the end of the season is estimated at 15,058,744 (x 1,000) bushels, or 327,858 (x 1,000) metric tons. As a reference, total US corn production in the period 2013-2016 equaled 13,828,964, 14,215,532, 13,601,964, 15,148,038 (x 1,000) bushels, or 301,084, 309,500, 296,142, 329,803, (x 1,000) metric tons, respectively.

The map above depicts the expected yields at the state level, in bushels per acre. By placing the pointer over a given state it is possible to get the numeric values of the expected yield with its prediction interval, and the anomaly in percentage over the last 5-years average. It is possible to switch the representation between yield and anomaly. The complete data shown on the map can also be found in the table below:

Winter wheat yield forecast (June 4, 2017)
yield PI (2.5%) PI (97.5%) 5-y average 5-y anomaly
Alabama 162 131 194
Arkansas 182 152 213
Colorado 144 114 174 138 +4.6%
Georgia 175 145 205
Idaho 202 173 233
Illinois 186 156 217 171 +8.8%
Indiana 166 138 197 157 +5.7%
Iowa 197 166 227 175 +12.6%
Kansas 144 114 174 132 +9.2%
Kentucky 162 131 194 145 +11.2%
Louisiana 188 156 221
Michigan 165 133 196 153 +7.5%
Minnesota 186 157 217 172 +8.2%
Mississippi 185 154 214
Missouri 151 120 181 140 +7.7%
Montana 104 73 135
Nebraska 177 147 208 171 +4.0%
New Jersey 153 123 185
New York 140 107 170
North Carolina 132 101 162 127 +4.6%
North Dakota 128 98 158 128 -0.2%
Ohio 162 132 193 156 +3.9%
Oklahoma 131 100 160
Oregon 230 196 264
Pennsylvania 145 114 176 141 +2.5%
South Carolina 139 106 172
South Dakota 152 122 183 141 +7.5%
Tennessee 162 130 193 144 +12.4%
Texas 149 119 178 135 +10.2%
Utah 185 154 217
Virginia 161 130 193
Washington 244 214 275
West Virginia 150 119 181
Wisconsin 162 131 192 153 +5.9%
Wyoming 154 123 185

The expected yield informs about the development of the crop, especially if it is compared with the average of the previous years, but the yield alone does not inform about the expected winter wheat production. The final production is the result of the yield and the acreage (the area planted), which varies from year to year. By combining the expected yield with the estimated crop acreage, it is possible to estimate the production. A production map can be found below:


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Production forecasts by state can be found below:

Winter wheat yield forecast (June 4, 2017)
production PI (2.5%) PI (97.5%) 5-y average 5-y anomaly
Alabama 38,973 31,353 46,488
Arkansas 109,352 91,060 127,567
Colorado 187,364 148,579 226,255 141,072 +32.8%
Georgia 59,393 49,188 69,559
Idaho 64,640 55,250 74,520
Illinois 2,101,809 1,762,029 2,454,223 2,000,960 +5.0%
Indiana 931,583 775,046 1,100,962 896,390 +3.9%
Iowa 2,618,814 2,212,150 3,013,959 2,326,120 +12.6%
Kansas 749,349 592,899 904,432 544,850 +37.5%
Kentucky 213,380 173,229 256,236 204,200 +4.5%
Louisiana 94,090 78,142 110,508
Michigan 379,433 306,048 451,400 334,248 +13.5%
Minnesota 1,490,434 1,256,991 1,739,595 1,363,862 +9.3%
Mississippi 97,880 81,653 113,591
Missouri 491,245 390,422 588,624 463,848 +5.9%
Montana 12,454 8,744 16,168
Nebraska 1,694,995 1,407,215 1,984,844 1,580,170 +7.3%
New Jersey 11,641 9,363 14,041
New York 156,927 120,036 190,268
North Carolina 125,792 96,342 154,266 104,954 +19.9%
North Dakota 422,767 323,405 522,787 395,236 +7.0%
Ohio 576,842 468,041 683,611 544,244 +6.0%
Oklahoma 43,250 33,124 52,861
Oregon 20,680 17,663 23,742
Pennsylvania 198,465 156,300 240,975 141,898 +39.9%
South Carolina 47,228 36,018 58,364
South Dakota 819,542 658,172 989,554 750,236 +9.2%
Tennessee 135,911 109,466 162,289 118,242 +14.9%
Texas 364,566 290,931 436,721 269,894 +35.1%
Utah 15,766 13,080 18,403
Virginia 77,170 62,476 92,760
Washington 39,018 34,259 44,028
West Virginia 6,917 5,471 8,347
Wisconsin 646,484 524,382 766,213 477,134 +35.5%
Wyoming 14,591 11,650 17,596

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